Retail inflation increases to 4.58% in April

Analysts expect Nigeria’s inflation rate to drop to its lowest in 3 years

The annual inflation rate based on the Wholesale Price Index rose to a four-month high of 3.18% in April from 2.47% a month ago, the Commerce Ministry said on Monday.

The index for "Food Articles" group rose by 1.9 percent to 139.8 (provisional) from 137.2 (provisional) for the previous month due to higher price of tea (18%), peas/chawali (13%), fruits & vegetables (8%), fish-marine (4%) and pork, paddy and maize (1% each).

WPI inflation was at 2.47% in the previous month and 3.85% during the corresponding month of the previous year.

Primary articles, which accounts for more than a fifth of the entire wholesale price index, grew 1.41 percent in April from 1.03 percent year a percent ago and 0.24 percent in March. However, potato showed the highest rise in price, at 67.94% in April 2018 as compared to April past year.

The contribution of primary articles to the overall inflation of 3.2% increased to 36 basis points (bps) in April 2018, up from contribution of 06 bps to 2.5% in March 2018.


"The government may prefer to wait for additional information about the level at which the monthly GST revenues stabilise after the e-way bill introduction, before reducing excise duty on fuels", she said. It also slashed CPI inflation estimate to 4.7-5.1 percent in April-September, 2018-19 and 4.4 percent in the next half of the year, including the impact of house rent allowance.

"The global rise in crude oil prices remains a key risk for the inflation trajectory".

In its first monetary policy review for the fiscal, the Reserve Bank last month maintained status quo on interest rate citing inflationary concerns.

The central bank revised downward forecast for retail inflation to 4.7-5.1 per cent for April-September and 4.4 per cent for October-March.

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