National Hurricane Center: Monitoring Gulf of Mexico for low chance development

Tropical wave to bring heavy rains

There's a chance a tropical depression or storm could develop in the Gulf of Mexico later this week - but it's a low chance as of Monday afternoon.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea is associated with a trough of low pressure.

They expect the area of disturbed weather to move westward to northwestward over Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days. As it moves northwest, interaction with land should slow any possible development, but there may be more favorable conditions when it moves into the southwestern Gulf late this week.

The NBC2 First Alert Hurricane tracking team will provide updates on forecast model trends with this tropical disturbance over the next several days to keep you informed of any potential development.


It has a 10 percent chance (low) of developing into at least a tropical depression within 48 hours and a 20 percent chance (low) of developing within five days.

The next name on the list this year is Beryl (BEHR-ril). The bulk of the moisture will be on the northern and eastern side of the system so any track shift to the east would bring heavy rains along the northern Gulf Coast.

The area of stormy weather at the bottom right of the image could develop into a tropical system later this week.

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