Sterling suffers longest losing streak since 2008 as dollar surges

REX  Shutterstock Thousands of anti Brexit demonstrators take part in The People's Vote march for a second EU referendum in central London on the second anniversary of the EU referendum. People's March for

At the same time as the no-deal scenario looks increasingly likely, calls for a new referendum are also gaining traction in the United Kingdom - and judging from betting markets, the implied odds of Britain actually exiting the European Union by March 29 next year has fallen below 50%, in the aftermath of Carney and Fox's comments.

Until the Turkish crisis eases Euro exchange rates look set to remain biased to the downside, with confidence in the European banking sector already strained.

While Brexit-based jitters have taken something of a back seat in recent days the Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate remains vulnerable to political worries.

The figures look specifically at London, where the proportion of properties sold to European buyers increased to 13% during the first half of this year, which is a markedly stronger performance than last year's 10%. It is ultimately putting a cap on the Pound's potential for gains against rivals. Odds of a hard and sudden Brexit are on the rise and the chance of a new referendum or a material prolongation of the negotiation-process the same, while the likelihood of an orderly exit by March 29 seems to vanish by the day.

Although even a stronger uptick in inflation is unlikely to prompt any major shift in the policy outlook of the Bank of England (BoE) this could still give Pound Sterling (GBP) a fresh rallying point. Following a sell-off in emerging market currencies towards the end of the week, the pound continued weakening against the U.S. dollar, but made gains versus the euro. This was the weakest point since September a year ago.

On the other side of the pairing, the US Dollar may be impacted by domestic retail sales for July which are due to be published on Wednesday.


However, if they disappoint or it the day's United Kingdom job market results come in well above expectations, GBP/EUR could continue to recover.

Later this week, we'll see inflation figures for July.

United Kingdom inflation is forecast to have contracted slightly month-on-month, but the yearly figure is expected to have improved from 2.4% to 2.5%.

Sterling has weakened sharply in August as traders grow increasingly anxious that Britain will crash out of the European Union next year without a trade deal, and as the dollar has surged.

United Kingdom inflation data and retail sales numbers for July are also due out this week.

If UK inflation is lower than expected, investors may become concerned that the BoE's August interest rate hike was unjustified.

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