Population of Earth to reach 9.7 billion in 2050

These projections are too high

In its 2017 study on population growth, the United Nations had forecast that there would be 9.8 billion people on the planet in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100.

UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Liu Zhenmin said the report offers a roadmap indicating where to target action and interventions.

"The populations of both Pakistan and Nigeria more than doubled in size between 1990 and 2019, with Pakistan moving up in rank from the 8th to the 5th position and Nigeria from the 10th to the 7th position", said the report.

But the biggest jump in the population size will happen in sub-Saharan Africa where it will grow two-fold by 2050, a development that might further strain fragile social systems of those countries.

Following the recent revelation according to the United Nations Population Division that estimated the world population at 7.7 billion, Nigeria has been identified as one of the most fertile nations in the world.


"More than half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just nine countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, the United Republic of Tanzania, and the United States of America", the report said. To benefit from this "demographic dividend", governments should invest in education and health, especially for young people, and create conditions conducive to sustained economic growth.

Average lifetime fertility of 2.1 live births per woman is roughly the level required for populations with low mortality to have a growth rate of zero in the long run.

A fertility rate of 2.1 births per woman is need to ensure population replacement and avoid declines, according to the report. While now only one in 11 people is of that senior age, in 2050 every six person will be 65 years of age or older. The number of persons aged 80 years or over is projected to triple, from 143 million in 2019 to 426 million in 2050. In 2018, for the first time in history, persons aged 65 or above outnumbered children under five years of age globally. China's population will continue to dwindle and is set to reach 1.1 billion by 2100, while India is expected to have 1.4 billion inhabitants by that time. Between 2010 and 2020, 14 countries or areas will see a net inflow of more than one million migrants, while 10 countries will see a net outflow of similar magnitude.

Outside of Europe some of the population shifts are even more dramatic, India is projected to overtake China as the world's most populous country around 2027 and reach a population peak around 2060.

For example, some of the largest outflows of people - including from Bangladesh, Mepal and the Philippines - are driven by the demand for migrant workers, the report said.

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